Good morning! The very warm weather continues, but our dry/storm-free pattern will be ending. We are about to enter a significant pattern change that will bring in a series of storm systems over the next couple of weeks. The first system will bring showers and storms to the state by the overnight hours Friday night and into Saturday. Another system in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame could bring some strong/severe storms to parts of the state. The details are still a little fuzzy, but there will be additional disturbances later next week. We certainly need the rain drops and the prospects are getting better. The New Drought Monitor map comes out later this morning. Here’s my brief video forecast discussion.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Warm. Light wind. High 85
(Normal hi/lo 80/54) (Yesterday’s high was 82)
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 57.
NEXT FEW DAYS: Highs in the 80’s each day through Tuesday. The first system will bring showers and storms to the state by the overnight hours Friday night and into Saturday. Another system in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame could bring some strong/severe storms to parts of the state.
WEEKEND STORM SYTEM:
The highest probability of showers and storms will be from overnight Friday night and into Saturday. Except for a small Level 1 Severe risk in far west Alabama Friday night – the rest of the state should not see any severe storms.
MONDAY PM STORM SYSTEM: Our next Storm System early next week looks like a bigger deal Monday night into Tuesday.
SEVERE RISK early Next week?: Right now SPC has trimmed back the Monday Night outlook to extreme NW Alabama. Could be expanded to a much larger area eventually.
Will SPC eventually expand the Severe Threat for Tuesday? It’s not out of the question. Stay tuned.
TALLADEGA RACE WEEKEND: The weekend storm system could certainly play a role in your weekend Talladega plans. The Sunday forecast has improved.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Saturday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 80. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
DROUGHT MONITOR: The new Drought Monitor Map is frankly shocking. 87% of our state is in a Severe Drought or greater. Almost half the state (46%) is classified as Extreme Drought status. The Alabama Forestry Commission (AFC) has suspended all burn permits statewide. Only certified, trained burn managers are permitted to burn, and only under strict supervision. A weekend storm system will deliver some raindrops to the state, but probably not enough to even put a dent in this worsening drought situation.
EXPECTED RAINFALL: Our rain prospects are certainly improving. Here’s the 7 day potential rainfall totals. Parts of north Alabama could see some flooding rainfall totals. Not as much across south Alabama.
The 10 Day model Blend Temperature Trend.
BEACH FORECAST: The highest probability of showers and storms will be on Saturday/Saturday night.
Thanks for reading this Blog this morning. This morning we are LIVE on the radio from 6 to 9 on NewsTalk 93.1. I’ll have another update for you in the 4 o’clock hour tomorrow morning. You can also watch us during our morning show on You Tube and Facebook. Search Newstalk 93.1. Have a nice day.
–Rich