Good morning! Our big warm-up continues. We’ll be back in the mid 80’s for the next few days. Nights are milder, now.
A weekend storm system will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highest probability of rain is Saturday and Saturday evening. A significant pattern change is on the way. The next disturbance will bring a round of potentially Severe Storms to the state by late Monday and Monday night. The pattern change will allow a parade of several storm systems to march through the Gulf States. Could be the start of an extended, rather bumpy ride. The prospects for meaningful rainfall is the best news. The Severe threat is not. Here’s my brief video forecast discussion.
TODAY: Cloudy through mid-morning, then gradual clearing.
Light wind. High 85
(Normal hi/lo 80/54)
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Not as cool. Low 57.
NEXT FEW DAYS: Expect middle 80’s again Thursday through the weekend. We are dry and storm-free at least through Friday evening. Showers could begin overnight Friday. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and into Sunday.
WEEKEND STORM SYTEM/FRONT: Showers and thunderstorms. I would say the best chance would be Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. There will be leftover showers and storms Sunday.
SPC’s Day 3 Friday Risk shows a Marginal threat across NW Alabama through 7AM Saturday morning. Will that be further extended to include much more of the state Saturday? If I was a bettering man, I’d say probably.
MONDAY PM STORM SYSTEM: Our nice respite from severe weather threats may be coming to a screeching halt. Watching the looming threat of strong/severe storms by late Monday and Monday night.
SEVERE RISK: This Day 4 Severe outlook for Monday evening/night only tells part of the story. The outlook for Severe Storms almost certainly expand to other parts of the state as we get into the Day3 range tomorrow. Stay tuned.
TALLADEGA RACE WEEKEND: The weekend storm system could certainly play a role in your weekend Talladega plans.
Friday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Saturday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 79. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Saturday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
FIRE RISK GROWING: Critically dry fuels, strong winds, and low minimum relative humidity will keep fire weather conditions elevated through this week.
EXPECTED RAINFALL: Finally, our prospects for meaningful rain seems to be turning around in a big way. Here’s the prospects for the next 7 days.
The 10 Day model Blend Temperature Trend.
Thanks for reading this Blog this morning. This morning we are LIVE on the radio from 6 to 9 on NewsTalk 93.1. I’ll have another update for you in the 4 o’clock hour tomorrow morning. You can also watch us during our morning show on You Tube and Facebook. Search Newstalk 93.1. Have a nice day.
–Rich