SUNDAY UPDATE:   Locally Heavy Downpours in The Week Ahead

Good morning!   Yesterday’s heat produced some rather impressive storms.  Some of the storms put on quite a show.  Today will be similar.  More scattered thunderstorms, by this afternoon and this evening.  Some towns will get some tropical downpours and gusty winds.

Get ready..During the week ahead, a trough of low pressure will develop in the upper atmosphere over Alabama.  That will help to promote a generous supply of showers and storms, especially Monday trough Wednesday.  Storms will start to thin out in number late week.

TODAY:  Another hot day.  High 93.  Heat index 100 to 105.  Scattered showers and storms this afternoon & this evening. Feast or famine on the rainfall.  Some towns will get some heavy rainfall totals.  Other towns will get skipped.  Low tonight 75.

MONTGOMERY CLIMATE DATA: The Montgomery Airport had a whopping 2.01” of rain yesterday.  That takes the total for the month to 8.00”.  That’s 4.36” above normal for the month.  We are now more than 12” above normal for the year. Winds gusted to 28 mph in the storm.  Yesterday’s high was 94, with a heat Index of 104.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Scattered to numerous showers and storms Monday through Wednesday.  That will knock the high temperature down a few degrees.  By Thursday and Friday, the number of storms will thin out, and temperatures will rebound.

THE TROPICS:  Hurricane Hanna’s eye made landfall on Padre Island, about 60 miles north of the U.S.-Mexico border, at about 5 p.m. on Saturday, with winds of 90 m.p.h.    At 4AM, Tropical Storm Hanna was on the US/Mexico border with winds of 60 mph. It will weaken to a depression later today as it moves into Mexico.

Invest 92-L in the tropical Atlantic, now has a 90% chance of becoming a Depression and eventually Tropical Storm Isaias.

Could the Future Isaias impact the southeastern US in several days?   Maybe….  It would be maybe 7-9 days from now.

If you are wondering where Gonzalo is on the map…that system fizzled and is now just a tropical wave.

I’ll have a complete video update for you tomorrow morning.

Stay safe and well. Enjoy the rest of your weekend …

–Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:  Intense Heat Will Ease – Storms Increase This Week – Hanna Now a Hurricane

8AM  UPDATE:

Hanna becomes the first Atlantic Basin Hurricane of the season. Winds now 75 mph. NHC: …OUTER RAINBANDS OF HANNA PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WIND

 

Good morning!   Our weekend weather will be relatively routine, with slightly better chances than recent days.  But, the week ahead looks active.  The daily rain chance will dramatically increase.  The best news is that the intense heat will ease a bit through mid-week.  By, late next week, it’s back to business as usual as the number of storms “thin out” and the heat returns.

Meanwhile, the tropics are very active.  South Texas is getting ready for a visit from what will soon be Hurricane Hanna.  Details below.

The Upper Heat Dome over us will weaken, as a trough develops.  This will increase the number of storms and ease the heat this week.

TODAY:   Partial sunshine.  High 93.  There will be a generous supply of those random scattered afternoon and evening  storms.  Low tonight mid 70’s.

Here’s a Future Radar snapshot showing the general storm coverage at 5PM.

NEXT FEW DAYS:    Rain chances get better and better.  Showers and storms will be likely Monday through Wednesday.  That’ll hold the temperature down a bit.  Rain chances will decrease late in the week as the temperatures rise.

BEACH FORECAST:  High rip current risk today, and moderate on Sunday.  Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms become likely Monday.

TROPICS:  Very busy in the tropics with Hanna approaching south Texas, Gonzalo approaching the Windward Islands and an increasing chance that Invest 92-L will develop into a Depression or storm in a few days.

Hanna is close to hurricane strength as it heads for south Texas today.  It could be an 80 mph hurricane at landfall.  Lots of heavy rain for Texas.

Gonzalo is falling apart and is barely a tropical storm with 40 mph winds as it approaches the southern Windward Islands.  It will continue to fizzle.

Invest 92-L could become a depression or the next Tropical Storm.  NHC currently gives it a 50% chance of development.

Could this system eventually have implications the Gulf of Mexico or the Southeast US?   Maybe….

I will have another Blog update tomorrow morning.  Follow me on Twitter:  @RichThomasWX.   Stay safe and well.

-Rich

Scattered Weekend Storms – Tracking The Busy Tropics – FRIDAY Video

Good Morning!  Our rain chances will be getting a little better over the weekend.  Your odds of encountering one of those random storms is improving.  But, don’t look for a cooling trend.  The relentless summer heat will continue for the next few days.  Meanwhile, We’re tracking Tropical Storm Hanna in the Gulf, and in the Atlantic, Gonzalo could reach hurricane status today as it heads for the Islands. Plus, a new system is emerging off the African, coast.  I have the latest from the busy tropics.

 

As Hanna, in the Gulf heads toward Texas,  expect another day of intense heat and random scattered storms.

That intense heat dome Ridge of High Pressure across the South, will undergo a little “weakness” over the weekend.  That will hope promote better coverage in the number of afternoon storms.

Better odds, this weekend, that you will encounter one of those random afternoon & evening storms.  Meanwhile, the relentless heat continues.

The turbulent Gulf will lead to better Beach rain chances over the weekend.  It won’t rain all the time, but be flexible.

Busy in the tropics with Hanna in the Gulf, Gonzalo could become a hurricane today in  the Tropical Atlantic and there’s a new Area to Watch coming off Africa.

 

 

Tropics Getting Busy – Improving Rain Chance By The Weekend? – THURSDAY Video

Good Morning! After a few quite weeks, things have become very active in the tropics, as we monitor a system in the Gulf of Mexico, and another one approaching the Caribbean Islands, which could become a Hurricane today. I have the latest from the National Hurricane Center. Our intense heat and humidity continues, with more scattered storms. But, the odds of encountering a random storm may get a little better by the weekend. I have updated the rain chance for here and the Gulf Coast.

 

More heat and humidity and random PM storms today….

Your odds of encountering one of those Random Storms will get just a little better over the upcoming weekend.

The Gukf is rather turbulent, and that will translate into higher than normal rain chances this weekend down at the coast.

This year’s hurricane season got off with a bang!   We got to the E and F storms earlier than any year in history.

Now, this week, things are getting very active again.  Why is that?  What clues do we have that the rest of the season could be very busy indeed?  I’ll address that on my weather extra tonight at 6 & 10PM  on CBS 8 and ABC 32, the Alabama News Network.  Join me for my weather extra tonight.

Heat, Humidity, Scattered Storms – Active in the Tropics – WEDNESDAY Video

Good Morning!  Here comes another day with intense heat, dangerous heat indices, and scattered random storms.  That big Heat Dome, anchored across the south, will remain a part of our lives for several more days.  It still appears there will be an uptick in number of storms by the weekend.  I’ve adjusted the forecast for here & the Gulf coast.  MEANWHILE, things are starting to get very interesting in the Tropics, and this may be just the start of a big surge in Tropical activity.  I’ll track the tropics for you on this morning’s video.

The upper heat dome remains in place and it will stick around for several more days.  Today we’ll be the sixth day of 95+ degrees with triple digit heat indices.

Interesting to show how TWO different hi-res models depict the afternoon storm development.  Vastly different ideas.  The WRF shows an active seabreeze front moving from south to north today.  The HRRR does not pick up on that idea.

Persistent Heat, Humidity, and scattered storms.  Triple digit heat index every day.  Slight uptick rain chance by the weekend.

Generous supply of random storms roaming around this weekend on the coast.  Just be flexible.  It won’t rain all the time.

Tropical Depression Seven in the Tropical Atlantic is very close to Tropical Storm intensity.  It will earn the name Gonzalo.

The other feature we’re tracking, in out backyard, is invest 91-L.  It could become a depression before it reaches Texas by the weekend.