Routine End to August – Two Fronts in the Next 10 days Could Bring Nice Changes – MONDAY Video

Good morning!  On this last day of August, we’ll be tracking a cluster of strong storms riding southeast across the state.  A few storms could require warnings, perhaps.  Storms thin out by mid-week and by late week, an approaching “cool” front could make it all the way through the state by Friday night.  That would lower the humidity a couple of notches, just in time for Labor Day weekend.  But, there’s an even more exciting cool front which may bring a big change in roughly 10 days.. Plus, we are now tracking 4 systems in the tropics.

Pretty routine last day of August.  We’ll be tracking a cluster of storms in north Alabama moving southeast.

Some of the storms could reach severe limits across north Alabama with damaging wind gusts.

Storms thin out later this week.  Small chance by Wednesday and Thursday.

How would you like somewhat lower humidity over the Labor Day weekend.  Models hint that a rare front may make it all the way to the coast.  It may not cool us off, but the humidity would come down a bit.  Noticeable change.

THIS WOULD BE EXCITING if it plays out.  An important cool front 10 days away?   It would bring much lower humidity and nicer temperatures.   FINGERS crossed.

Very busy in the tropics again..  4 systems being monitored by NHC.

 

 

SUNDAY UPDATE: Deep Tropical Moisture – Scattered Showers & Storms – Several Tropical Areas to Watch

Good morning! Today’s update will be rather short and sweet.  It’s rather routine summer forecast as August comes to an end and September begins.  Deep tropical moisture is still in place for the next 2-3 especially.  So, those random afternoon & evening storms will be in  generous supply through at least Tuesday.  Storms will tend to thin out in number by mid to late week.  The nice thing about this week…there will be no tropical storms or hurricanes to track in the Gulf. However, the National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring four Areas to watch in the tropics.

On the map this morning, there is a frontal system which will “tease” the state today, but I think it will stall and not be a big player in Alabama’s weather.

TODAY:  Very humid.  A sun/cloud mix.  Showers and storms are possible anytime, but especially this afternoon and this evening.  High 91.  Low tonight 75.  Here’s a hi-res future radar snapshot at 5:00PM.  Generous coverage on the storms today.  (50-60%)

NEXT FEW DAYS:   The better than normal rain chance stays in place through Tuesday.  But, by Wednesday and Thursday, storms will start to thin out in number.  They will become widely scattered.

TROPICAL UPDATE:  There’s a new X on the map near the southeast coast.  There’s a decent chance that a depression or tropical storm will develop off the US East coast by mid-week.  The next name on the list is Nana.  Meanwhile, NHC continues to monitor three other Areas to Watch in the tropical Atlantic.

I’ll have a complete video update for you tomorrow morning.  Sd have much to talk about I’ll have new information from the National Hurricane Center.

Stay safe and well. Enjoy your Sunday!

–Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:  Tropical Moisture Lingers – More Scattered Showers & Storms

Good morning!  In the wake of Laura, deep tropical moisture remains over Alabama.  Many of you experienced heavy tropical downpours yesterday.  It looks like we are in for more of the same for the next 2-3 days.

It will be feast or famine.   Some towns could see 1-2” of rain in a brief period of time.  Others towns will see very little.  But, your odds of encountering an occasional downpour are good, through at least Monday.

Later in the week, the number of showers will decrease.  But, this week, we will not have to worry about any tropical encounters in our neighborhood.  However, there are two tropical systems we are tracking in the Atlantic.

TODAY: Look for a sun/cloud mix.  Best chance of showers and storms will be this afternoon & evening.  There will be a generous supply of those random storms.  Locally heavy downpours in spots.  Here’s one hi-res model’s idea on the type of coverage we might see at 3PM.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   The better than normal coverage on the showers and storms will continue at least through Monday.  After Monday, we’ll see a decrease in the daily numbers of storms.  Don’t look for any relief from the heat and humidity.  I don’t see a break.

BEACH FORECAST:  The news is not great.  Showers and storms will be rather numerous.  Not only that, the red flags continue to fly, with a High Rip Current risk through the weekend.  It never rains in the restaurant.

 

THE TROPICS:  The National Hurricane Center is tracking two Areas to Watch in the tropical Atlantic, moving in the general direction of the Caribbean.  Will these systems eventually develop and become a threat to land?  Too early to say right now.

LAURA’S INCREDIBLE TREK:  You can bet the name Laura will never be used again.  It became a very large and intense Category 4 Hurricane before moving ashore near Cameron Louisiana on Thursday morning.  With 150 mph winds, it was just 7 mph shy of becoming a Category 5 hurricane.  It’s the strongest hurricane to ever come ashore in Louisiana .  Maximum storm surge was an incredible 17 feet.  Damage, as you know, is prolific.

Laura this morning is now called a Remnant Low.  It’s located a little east of Louisville.  Take a look at Laura’s incredible trek from  a disturbance off the African coast, to it’s position today.  It still could become a tropical storm again in the Atlantic.

KATRINA ANNIVERSARY:  Fifteen years ago today, Katrina came ashore on the Mississippi coast as a category 3 hurricane.  We all know what happened with the prolific flooding in New Orleans when the levees broke and Lake Pontchartrain poured into the city.  Death toll was 1,833 souls.  Costliest hurricane on record.  $125 Billion in damage.

I will have another Blog update tomorrow morning.  Follow me on Twitter:  @RichThomasWX.   Stay safe and well.

-Rich

Laura’s Circulation Impacts Alabama Today & Saturday – FRIDAY Video

UPDATE:

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Tropical Tornado Threat a bit farther south in their latest Day 1 update. Marginal risk now as far south as an Alex City, Eclectic, Selma line. Brief spin up tornadoes possible. Stay weather aware #alwx

EARLY MORNING UPDATE:  ood morning! Tropical Depression Laura’s “tail” of moisture will have a big influence on Alabama’s weather today and Saturday.  The large circulation around Laura will bring an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms.  There will be a few tornado warnings in the state, too.  What about the rest of the weekend and beyond?  Once again, I had to make some adjustments to the rain chances through early week.  And, there are now two “X”s on the map from the National Hurricane Center in the tropical Atlantic.

The large moisture circulation around Laura will bring and increased threat of showers and storms.

Active radar today.  Numerous showers and storms.  Tropical downpours.

There will be some tornado warnings in the state today due to Laura.

Higher than normal rain chance through the weekend.  Decreasing a bit by mid week.

HIGH rip current risk today.  Moderate Saturday and Sunday.  Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

NHC now has TWO Area’s To Watch on the map in the Tropical Atlantic.  We’re just weeks away from the statistical peak of the season.  Who knows how crazy it will get in the next couple of months.

Historic Dangerous Laura Will Affect Many States over the Next 3 Days – How will it affect Alabama? – THURSDAY Video

Hurricane Laura, perhaps the strongest storm to ever cross the NW Gulf Coast, is producing unimaginable damage this morning, headed toward Arkansas, before making an extreme right turn and cutting across to the middle Atlantic states in the next 3 days. The extreme outer moisture flow around this large storm will begin to effect Alabama over the next couple of the days.  I have made some big adjustments in the forecast.  Parts of our state could also see a tornado threat from Laura.  I have the latest..plus a look at a new tropical Area to watch coming off Africa.

Laura is still a 120 mph hurricane at 4AM, and still will be a Hurricane when it reaches Shreveport later today, before making that extreme right turn through the Ohio valley and into the Middle Atlantic states, before becoming a Tropical Storm again over the Atlantic.

A big chuck of our state could even see a tornado threat from Laura, especially tomorrow and Saturday.

Our rain chances will be pretty high, especially Friday and Saturday, from the large tropical moisture circulation around Laura.